The social impact of more bandwidth into the home means will probably not lead to more, but to less impact of the mass-media/networks/mediaconglomerates. As the available advertising and subscription dollars have to be shared by more television channels, more Internet providers (and in 10 year the difference between them will be far less as the NET will evolve into the main video-on-demand medium) the turnover per channel/site/program will decrease dramatically. This is a threat to the large media enterprises, but possibly a enormous chance for local media. With nearly unlimited choice of content the consumer might pick more and more local material, as this is real and contains practical information as opposed to the mostly virtual data on the global web.
In the wave of new media there are many experiments, many new forms and marketing ploys, but basically the two main trends are:
Let's translate this into practical terms:
The middle class citizen in the year 2000 has access to 100 plus broadcast
channels in various classes, some billion pages/files/movies/worlds
of internet-web content, switched services including full video telephony
and electronic meetings in VR. He will use agents to cruise this sea of
data and fetch what he thinks/feels/is told to like but will still crave
the human companionship and real communication of the heart.
However, he/she will not spend more than the 5-10% (typically 7%)
of income on entertainment, including electronic communications, as
that has been a fairly stable figure through the ages. It might jump
because of a new and exciting medium, but will then level off again.
This seems to be true for time too, people will probably spend the
same amount of time in front of a screen(VR-helmet/multisensory armchair)
as they do now. And do they respond better to the exploitation of
their underinformed ego's by way of advertising? As marketing is
really the art of disinformation it will find ways to reach the buyers,
even under the disguise and pretense of `indepent' advice/information.
(The computer industry with its ever slimmer margins became the victim
of its own success, believing in the magazines and media (the NET) that
made the markets and products ever more transparent thereby reducing
the possibility to sustain profit-margins and therefore innovation.
A totally transparent market will become very dull en marginally profitable).
So what are the basics:
Enormously expanded offering of content, roughly the same spending
power (or advertising share of the end-user price), so per channel/network/site/world/service/bit
a much lower price. And if you don't want to offer your services for
nearly free, your competitor will in this economy of the prisoner's
dilemma.
Do I project doom for the mass-media. Yes, if they don't understand
that their share of the total cake per medium is diminishing rapidly.
Oh, they believe that there is some magical 80/20 rule, so that the
top performers will be in the clear. Of course, but the rest has to
survive too and they will have to do with a far smaller piece of the
cake.
So what to?
Start working on content-generating techniques that produce adequate
interactive video/3d/4d content at a cost-price that is an order of
magnitude lower than the present betacam/digital avid/broadcast quality
stuff.
Where will it go?
The expanded offering in local content, provided the necessary business
and infrastructure to develop more local content emerges, will have
(I hope) a positive effect on the coherence of the local community,
will help integrate the social/racial/economic strata and lead to
a more `rooted' and less `alienated' feeling for the citizen of the
III-th millenium.
Example of marketing anno 2000:
After responding to any of the myriad feeder-ploys the president Apple
Computer (a division of Walmart) will call yopu on the videophone
and will personally adress you, in your language, responding to your
personality and spending profile and will offer you the tailor-fit
solution for your workstation/VR room/sextool. He (it) will (as it
is a guided animation anyway) do anything in the book to make you
happy, content, a satisfied customer.
This is positive, as it is more individual, less impersonal, and at
the same time we have to be wary of the dangers of manipulation, hypnotizing
and a society where the form and `the spectacle' is more important
than the content.
In order to safeguard the positive influence of the digital evolution
of Internet/cable/interactive TV towards small scale democracy, tribal
and neighbourly awareness and city state economics and fend off the
negative aspects of supermediapower cultural homogenization it is
necessary to support local Internet and cable initiatives, support
local media, support electronic offspring of existing local media
and boost the involvement of minorities in the electronic cyberspace
decolonization.